1. Department of Physical Education and Sport Science, Democritus University of Thrace, Greece

2. Department of Physical Education and Sport Science, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to record the longitudinal progress of the winners’ performance, as well as to predict the performance of the bronze medal winners in the throwing events in 2013 Mediterranean Games. The recorded performances regarded the first and third medal winners (124 men & 68 women) in Shot put, Discus throw, Javelin throw and Hammer throw during the 16 Games which are organized till today. The correlation analyses evaluated the intercorrelations in performances via games while the Wilcoxon test assessed the differences in performance between genders. The non-linear regression was implemented for the prediction of the athletes’ performance by using the logarithmic model. The results confirmed that in both male and female gold medal winners’ performance a significant improvement was observed. Furthermore, in the amount of the studied events the men’s throwing performance was significantly better than that of women. The regression analysis recorded that in the throwing events the prediction accuracy of the men’s performance varies from 57% to 87%. Additionally, the prediction of women’s throwing performance ranged from 56% to 82%. Conclusively, it was recorded that in the throwing events both male and female winners’ performance improved linearly during the Mediterranean Games. Furthermore, the possibility to predict accurately the performance needed for both male and female athletes to win the bronze medal during the future Mediterranean Games was high.

Key words: athletics, technique, gender, logarithmic model.

Correspondence to:

Associate Professor Pilianidis Theophilos, PhD

Democritus University of Thrace

Department of Physical Education & Sport Science

University Campus

69100, Komotini, Greece

Phone & Fax: ++30531039683

Mobile: ++30932472967

E-mail: thpilian@phyed.duth.gr

Introduction

From the beginning of the last century the sports scientists had already identified the possibility of human performance prediction, especially in Olympic level athletes (Ettema, 1966; Κumar & Rai, 2000). Historically, the athletes’ performance prediction timeline was divided in 5 periods. The 1^st was orientated in the first organized International games from 1891 to 1912, the 2^nd period from 1913 to 1929 which was strongly affected by the 1^st World War, the 3^rd period from 1921 to 1936 (mid War), the 4^th period from 1937 to 1947 which was intensely influenced by the 2^nd World War and the last period from 1948 until today. Comparing the above periods, it was recorded that after the 1^st and 2^nd World Wars the athletes’ performance was negatively affected to a great extent (Foster, James & Haake, 2010). Initially, the prediction models were developed in the individual sports of Athletics and Swimming. The non-linear regression analysis evaluated 61 World records in Athletics and Swimming in a time period of 109 years (from 1900 to 2009) and it predicted that in 7.5 to 10.5 years from now the 61 records will present a plateau without any signs of improvement (Chang & Baek, 2011).

The winning performance prediction in any running, jumping, throwing or combined event in an important competition in Athletics could be a useful tool for the coach to design the annual training plan in world-class athletes (Peronnet & Thibault, 1989). In a recent study concerning the Athletics from 1900 to 2007, in nine events (100m, 400m, 1500m, 10000m, Marathon, long jump, high jump, shot put, javelin throw) the evolution of world records in male athletes was double than that of the females in the majority of the studied events (Lippi et. al. 2008). The highest improvement was shown in Shot put and Javelin throw events in both men’s (58.0% & 48.8%) and women’s performance (186.0% & 123.0%). The linear improvements in the Javelin throw were interrupted in the male event in 1984 and in the female in 1999 due to the latest IAFF reconstructed rules in javelin

Nowadays, the evaluation and the prediction of throwing performance are based on arithmetic and logarithmic models. Thus, in men’s Discus throw the winning performance in 2001 IAAF World Athletics Championships in Edmonton was predicted to be 78m and in Athens 2004 Olympic Games 79m (Tilinger & Kovar, 2004). Recently, in an evaluation study for the performance progress in Olympic and in Commonwealth Games in Shot put, in Javelin throw, in Hammer throw and in Discus throw it was reported that the athletes’ throwing performance was improved linearly from the first games till the early 70s. From this period till today, the athletes who participated in Olympic and Commonwealth games stabilized or gradually decreased their improvement (Hammond & Bishop, 2008). Because of the fact that the international bibliography has limited reports on performance progress via games of throwing events, the aim of this study was to evaluate in a period of 58 years the winners’ performance progression in throwing events in the Mediterranean Games. Additionally, this study will try to predict the male and female throwers’ performance which is necessary for the participants in the throwing events of the 2013 Mediterranean Games to win the bronze medal.

Materials and Methods

The evaluated performances regarded the first and third medal winners (124 men & 68 women) in the throwing events: Shot put, Discus throw, Hammer throw, Javelin throw during the 16 Mediterranean Games which are organized till today. The athletes’ competitive performances were recorded by using the official “Results Data” derived from the International Committee of Mediterranean Games (CIJM). In these games in which 23 counties from Europe, Asia and Africa were participated, the male athletes competed in all throwing events in the 16 Games, from the first held in Alexandria (Egypt) in 1951 until the last organized games in Pescara (Italy) in 2009. The male Hammer throwers participated in 14 games because the event did not exist in the Games program in 1967 and 1993. The female throwers participated for first time in Shot put and Javelin throw in the 1967 Games in Tunis (Tunisia). Since then, they have participated in 10 Games because of an interruption of the above events in the 1971 and 1975 Mediterranean Games. The Discus throw was firstly presented at the women’s throwing event program in 1971 and it is held consequently for 11 Games until today, while the Hammer throw event was firstly introduced in 2001 and it was held only in the last 3 Mediterranean Games (2001 to 2009).

Statistical analysis

The data normality was checked by using the Van der Waerden’s method, while the variables’ normal distributions were confirmed by the probability P-P plots. Descriptive statistics with exploration was firstly generated for the categorical performance variables. The Pearson's correlation in male and the non-parametric Spearman’s analysis in female were applied in order to measure the degree of association of the variables “Mediterranean Games” and “winners’ performance” in the four (4) throwing events. The statistical design for the winners throwing performances in relation to gender was evaluated by using the Wilcoxon test. The non-linear regression (curve estimation) using the logarithmic model fit was implemented for the prediction of the bronze medal winning performance of the male and female athletes’ in throwing events during the 2013 Mediterranean Games in Mersin (Turkey). All statistical analyses were carried out by employing the SPSS-PASW software, version 18.0 for Windows, (SPSS, Inc., Chicago, IL).

Results

The exploration statistics showed a gradual improvement in the throwing winning performance in both male and female athletes. The gold medal throwers performance which was recorded during the 16 Mediterranean Games is presented in Table 1.

Table 1. The Mediterranean games host cities and the winners’ performance (mean, median, range) in the throwing events relating to gender.

Mediterranean Games	Throwing events
	Shot put (m)	Discus throw (m)		Hammer throw (m)	Javelin throw (m)
			Male	Female	Male		Female	Male	Female	Male	Female
Alexandria, 1951			15.03		48.49			52.33		65.82
Barcelona, 1955			15.70		52.81			55.14		69.00
Beirut, 1959			16.97		55.02			62.26		74.10
Naples, 1963			17.82		53.96			63.59		77.75
Tunis, 1967			18.01	11.57	57.30					69.02	33.10
Izmir, 1971			20.19		57.64		48.90	68.76		78.04
Algiers, 1975			19.43		61.26		52.34	68.22		74.72
Split, 1979			20.58	16.80	57.96		52.92	69.92		81.08	57.96
Casablanca, 1983			20.05	18.01	62.58		53.70	69.94		79,28	61.62
Latakia, 1987			19.23	15.90	60.94		55.98	74.30		74.78	59.40
Athens, 1991			19.38	17.71	60.10		59.46	75.10		76.04	60.34
Languedoc-Roussillon, 1993			20.22	17.04	60.90		57.16			79.46	60.90
Bari, 1997			19.54	17.82	61.66		66.18	78.44		89.22	57.32
Tunis, 2001			21.03	17.23	64.40		61.42	78.49	64.59	80.88	62.02
Almeria, 2005			20.26	18.59	63.96		62.10	77.88	71.17	75.20	62.61
Pescara, 2009			20.30	17.77	65.58		61.17	75.92	70.39	79.78	60.97
Mean			18.96	17.86	59.02		61.56	69.30	68.71	76.83	61.86
Median			19.48	17.70	60.52		61.42	69.94	70.39	76.80	62.02
Range			6.00	1.36	17.09		0.93	26.16	6.58	23.40	1.64

The Pearson’s qualitative analysis revealed strong correlations between the performance progresses and the Mediterranean games in men’s throwing events in a time frame of 58 years. The correlations coefficients between the male athletes’ throwing performance via the games ranged from 0.66 to 0.93. More specifically, the r values was as high as 0.94 (p<.001) in Hammer throw, 0.93 (p<.001) in Discus throw, 0.83 (p<.001) in Shot put and acceptable in Javelin throw (r=0.66, p<.05). In addition, the non-parametric coefficients of Spearman’s rho showed that the association in female throwing performance via Mediterranean Games was high only in Discus throw (r=0.91, p<.001). In contrary to the above, the rho intercorrelations were reported low in Javelin throw (0.63, p=.79), in Shot put (0.60, p=.70) as well as in Hammer throw (0.50, p=.67). The correlation coefficients between both male and female performance in throwing events at the Mediterranean Games is illustrated in Table 2.

Table 2. Pearson’s r (male) and Spearman’s rho (female) correlation coefficients evaluated the winners’ throwing performance progress via the Mediterranean Games in relation to gender.

Event	r	p values	Significance
Male
Shot put	0.83	.001
Discus throw	0.93	.001
Hammer throw	0.94	.001
Javelin throw	0.66	.05
	rho	p values	Significance
Female
Shot put	0.60	.70	n.s.
Discus throw	0.91	.001
Hammer throw	0.50	.67	n.s.
Javelin throw	0.63	.79	n.s.

The non-parametric Wilcoxon test showed that significant differences were reported between male and female winning performance in the Mediterranean Games in the 3 out of 4 throwing events. Significant differences were recorded in performance in Shot put (z=-2.80, p<.05), in Javelin throw (z=-2.81, p<.05) and in Discus throw (z=-2.4, p=.01). In the contrary, based on positive ranks, no significant differences between male and female athletes were reported in performance in Hammer throw (z=-1.6, p=.11).

The regression analysis reported high prediction accuracy in male athletes’ performance in the majority of the throwing events. The highest prediction validity for the future Mediterranean Games was presented in Hammer throw (R²=0.87, p<.001), in Discus throw (R²=0.85, p<.001) and in Shot put (R²=0.72, p<.05), while the men’s performance predictive accuracy in Javelin throw was as low as 0.57, (p<.05). Similarly with male, in female athletes the ability to predict with accuracy the performance needed for the bronze medal win in the Mediterranean Games of 2013 was acceptable in the majority of throwing events. The R² values were reported as high as 0.82 (p<.001) in the Hammer throw. In the rest three throwing events, the logarithmic model presented a performance predictive accuracy ranging between 0.76 and 0.56. More specifically, the female Discus throw gives R² values 0.76 (p<.001), the Shot put 0.65 (p<.05) and the Javelin throw 0.56 (p<.05). The logarithmic model of the regression curve estimation analysis is illustrated in Table 3.

Table 3. Prediction model for the male and female athletes’ performance needed to win the bronze medal in the throwing events in the 2013 Mediterranean Games.

Event	Performance	R2	Constant	b1
Male
Shot put (m)	19.80	0.72	-1193.89	159.64
Discus throw (m)	61.95	0.85	-4229.95	564.51
Hammer throw (m)	74.00	0.87	-6662.75	886.32
Javelin throw (m)	79.22	0.57	-3801.82	510.16
Female
Shot put (m)	17.55	0.65	-2543.39	336.87
Discus throw (m)	59.14	0.76	-4758.99	633.63
Hammer throw (m)	67.88	0.82	-8854.78	1173.24
Javelin throw (m)	60.08	0.56	-9448.33	1250.75

Discussion

Historically the enhancing of athletes performance, especially from late 60s till today, was resulted by a number of factors such as the scientific training (Verchoshanskij, 1999), the drug use (Franke & Berendonk 1997) as well as the innovative technology in Athletics (Liebermann, et al., 2002; Epstein, 2010). Following the linear improvement of the world Athletics, especially after the Mexico Olympic Games in 1968 (Craig, 1969), the results of this study confirm that both male and female athletes who participated at the throwing events in the Mediterranean Games in the period of 1951 to 2009 had a gradual improvement in their performance. A possible explanation for the above findings is that the throwers who participated in the Mediterranean Games represented countries such as former Yugoslavia, Italy, France and Greece with noticeable success in the amount of throwing events (Bernard & Busse 2004).

Fundamental studies revealed that in the running, jumping and throwing events in Athletics the male athletes have a biological advantage in performance in relation to female athletes (Vince, 1996; Lippi et al., 2008). This study findings confirm that the hormonal (Katz & Katz, 1999) and neuromuscular adaptations (Seiler, Koning, Foster, 2007) offer a strong advantage in throwing performance in Shot put, Discus throw and Javelin throw in male in relation to female athletes who participated in the Mediterranean Games. In contrast, no differences existed between male and female Hammer throwers’ performance. A possible explanation for this finding is that there are differences in the weight of the hammers used by male and female athletes (Wrublevsky, 2005) and the fact that the male winners in hammer throw were not qualified as world-class athletes according to their performance (Guillaume et al., 2009).

In general, the logarithmic regression model which was applied provides a high ability in prediction of throwing performance in male athletes who participated in the Mediterranean Games. However, in the male Javelin throw the IAAF rules tend to change frequently limiting the performance prediction accuracy for this event in the future Mediterranean Games. In addition, the non-linear regression analysis, which was applied in this study, offers acceptable prediction validity in Discus and Hammer throws because of the linearity of the performance progress in these female events from 1967 to 2009. In contrast, in women’s Shot put and Javelin throw the new styles which were introduced in throwing technique in Shot put (rotational & glide intermediate step) as well the April 1999 IAAF Javelin throw new specifications (center of gravity was moved forward by 30cm in Javelin) affected negatively the predictive performance accuracy in the above throwing events.

Conclusion

Conclusively, the present study confirms that the improvement in throwing performance in both male and female athletes who participated in the Mediterranean Games was linear. In addition, the high predictive accuracy which was revealed from this equation models, especially in male throwers, can provide the coaches with valuable information in order to design their throwers annual training periodization aiming at the bronze medal in the 2013 Mediterranean Games.

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